Immigrant crime: the fallacy of composition and the Usual Suspects

Neighbor (after reading a letter to the editor): "Aren't you afraid Russell Pearce's henchmen will come to get you."

Gilligan:  "No ... they should be afraid of me [and if not me ...  my uncle, Louie, The Greek].  The only person I'm afraid of is Keyser Soze."

"Do undocumented migrants commit more crime proportionally than native-born Americans? No."  

-- Ed Montini, AZ Republic, 1/10/19

Comrade Professor Montini, King of the Nibelung:

What's your source for this observation?  The Cato Institute, i.e., Landgrave and Nowrasteh?  Their study focused on incarceration rates, a dubious proxy for crime.

Landgrave and Nowrasteh found in their study of those they called "illegal immigrants" that "illegal immigrants are less likely to be incarceratedthan native-born Americans."  Lott, on the other hand, using a 100 percent sample of Arizona incarcerations found that illegal immigrants were over-represented,  criticizing those (e.g., Landgrave and Nowrasteh) who relied on the American Community Survey sample (ACS).   Lott study raises the pertinent issue of African-American incarceration rates and African-American recidivism rates skewing overall incarceration rates for the native-born.   Lott, to the extent he did, might be guilty of a fallacy of composition where he suggests Arizona data extrapolates to the entire US.

Disaggregating  Landgrave and Nowrasteh's findings shows that they are not inconsistent with Lott's, however,  since Arizona has a relatively small African-American population and the likelihood that Arizona's African-American population may not suffer as much from institutions and institutional status (in an Ayresian sense) as African Americans do in other parts of the US.   According to Landgrave and Nowrateh,  Hispanic Americans of any race, illegal immigrants and not, have higher incarceration rates than White and Asian Americans.  Lott, for his part, attributes differences in native-born Hispanics and Whites to the well-known association of youth with crime and allows that but for that demographic native-born White and Hispanic crime rates are about the same.

Why are African American incarceration rates so high?  1) The institutional inheritance, old and new.   2)  The Usual Suspects:  in criminal investigations the police first look for known culprits: mugshots, fingerprints, DNA.  

But, facts don't really matter here, Ed.   This wall business is just a political pissing contest.   Even if the wall accomplished nothing,  the lousy $5 Billion isn't worth shutting down the TSA and Coast Guard ... a rational opposition would trade the wall for something they believe is worthwhile.

Suggesting that facts matter is dissembling on your part, Ed.   You either don't understand the study you cite or you don't care ... probably both.   You just want to be part of the pissing contest.   You get up in the morning and without even changing out of your pajamas, you start throwing BS at the wall.   You're an embarrassment to all the people in your professor who work hard at putting together stories that are interesting and bear some semblance to reality.  You, Ed, are guilty not only of the fallacy of composition, but also, the fallacy of division.

Slainte,

Gilligan

Data Scientist

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