Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Does Steve Benson have something to confess?

"Bob, we need you to run for the US Senate."
"Jim, are you crazy. Everyone loves the Republican incumbent. I'll get my brains beat out in November."
"Just run, Bob. Farley, Flynn and the boys will take care of the Republican for you."


In 1939, the Wagner-Rogers bill provided for rescuing 20,000 German children from the Nazis. At the last minute, Senator Robert Rice Reynolds of North Carolina used a procedure maneuver to prevent a final vote on grandpa's friend Bob Wagner's bill before WW2 broke out.

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Editor, Arizona Republic,

Regarding Steve Benson's United States of Anti-semitism cartoon (10/30/18),  I know what my family's senator was doing in 1939.   What were the Benson family senators doing?  Does Steve have something he needs to tell us?

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Arizona Republic's Fake Election News

The Republic claimed 270,000 voters were affected by Recorder Fontes's election day problems on Augusts 28, 2018.   Preposterous.   Only 101,000 people voted on election day and even then most of these don't live in the precincts affected by the outages that lasted only a few hours.

In the precincts affected by the outage
11,420 ballots were cast on election day
65,693 ballots were cast prior to election day by mail or in person 

We know ahead of time that only about 30% of the registered voters in Maricopa county will vote in a primary.

We know ahead of time that most voters will vote before election day.   In the recent election, the number for the affected precincts 85% of the total vote.

Using the election day turnout rate for the unaffected precincts,  we get a proforma election day vote for the affected precincts of 12140.

The hard ceiling for the number possibly affected by the outage is 13,000.   But we know 11,420 were able to vote and that the affected precincts were closed for only part of the morning.

Using an estimated hourly arrival/voting rate at the affected precincts and the timeline recently provided by the Recorder,  the number of voters affected works out to only about 2,500 with the number that might have been entirely deterred at about 600-700,  using the difference between the proforma vote and the actual vote.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

Dam Irish

Very nicely done, the Republic's video about the "unnatural" things mankind has done to the Colorado river (AZ Republic,  10/29/18).   I'm surprised, though, that the Republic didn't blame the Irish for the mayhem, as it often has (eg, Ed Montini and Clarence Page's "The Irish Should Remember" essays).   The dam McMani lit the fuse on this mayhem when McManus, Seyfert & Co. built the Croton Dam so New York City would have clean water to grow and stop its cholera epidemics.   The dam Irish who started this mayhem were abetted by Dennis Hart Mahan who taught America's engineers how to build railroads, canals and dams.   William John Murphy hired the dam Mexicans (who via their Spanish ancestors are a lot more Irish than Elizabeth Warren is Native American) who built the canals that made Phoenix possible.   Maybe we should blow up the damn dams and return the desert to it natural state ... but what would we do with all the dam people living in Phoenix and Southern California who need the dam water to live.

Friday, October 19, 2018

Who will protect us from the "free" press

Some at the Arizona Republic feel the free press needs protecting.   Who will protect the rest of us from the "free" press.   Notably, the "free" press hasn't told the mushrooms about all the problems with Arizona's Proposition 127.  

  • Prop 127 won't make Arizona's air healthier or save the planet.   Most of our pollution is produced by cars, trucks, airplanes, agriculture, mining and construction.   Arizona produces only a tiny, tiny portion of the world's global warming CO2 and even then much of that is produced by ... car, trucks etc.   The healthier-and-saves-the-planet mantra continues to be recited in the Republic by the 127 cargo cult without any remonstrance.
  •  The claim that California's solar-panel-new-home mandate will pay for itself has appeared numerous times in the Republic.   The Republic hasn't publish any rebuttals to this dubious claim, which is even more dubious if applied to Arizona where electric rates are much lower than California.
  •  APS bandit stories appear often in the Republic newspaper, but APS is never compared to other publicly owned utilities and their rates.   If APS is a bandit, what is SCE, whose rates are substantially higher?   The mafia?
  • If solar power costs less than the nasty kind,  why doesn't Prop 127 have a clause that does away with all solar subsidies.
  • Why in heavens name if we want to save the planet from pollution,  would we want to put a straitjacket on nuclear power.   And why is cobalt for battery storage less nasty and more renewable than uranium?

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Solar: facts are facts ... until they're not

The following has appeared repeatedly in the AZ Republic, most recently 10/16 in a story about APS campaign contributions.
"California customers should save about $80 a month in heating, cooling and lighting, or about $19,000 over the usual 20-year life of solar panels. Isabel Greenblatt, The Republic | azcentral.com"
Writing in the Wall Street Journal on 8/12/18, A Duke University professor,  Steven Sexton, says the California numbers are a fraud and explains why.
"The Phony Numbers Behind California’s Solar Mandate"



Who should we believe.   Instead of nullius in verba,   I'd go with the guideline that if Arizona politician Andy Tobin is selling something, eg, renewables,  it's like buying real estate from a Trump.
Duke 1,  California 0

Keeping up with the Garcias: a modest proposal to save the planet

As my daughter's 16th birthday rapidly approaches,  I am being made acutely aware that, in addition to lavish quinceaneras,  my daughter's friends are getting cars for their birthdays.   How can we save the planet when every 16-year-old in the US expects a car for their birthday?   No wonder the US has the highest per capita CO2 emissions in the world.  By far!
 
Here's a modest proposal to save the planet.   The country with the highest CO2 emissions needs to immediately adopt a zero growth policy.   No more immigration and send all the illegal immigrants home to the lower per capita CO2 countries.   Not only would this reduce the capitas, but it would also almost immediately throw the world's worst CO2 per capita country into a depression.   This would reduce US CO2 production by at least 30%, and better yet: devastate the economies of China and India.   That will definitely reduce world CO2 emissions and save the planet.   Of course, the collapse of the Chinese and Indian economies will mean that millions of people will starve to death, but that can probably be alleviated by having them eat the excess children.

Maybe I should change my avatar?


PS:  Maybe we should pursue a less radical approach to saving the planet.   Go to church every Sunday and pray to God that the Chinese are really good at building nuclear reactors to replace their coal mines ... and that the folks trying to build hydrogen powered trucks out around Casa Grande have a good idea and make lots of money.   And raise the age you can start to drive to 18.


"Yeah ... well, I also cook."

Mr. Hansen, Arizona Republic:

It's too bad you couldn't list the details on what Sen. Flake thinks the US needs to do to address climate change.   Why, for example, are we asking the Navajo to give up their coal mine when Arizonans and Californians aren't being asked to give up their trucks and automobiles ... and China, India and Germany aren't giving up their dirty coal (at least for now).   With US coal-burning power plants being pushed out of business anyway,  what's the last big thing the US can to about its CO2 emissions?  Everyone buy electric cars and stop buying iPhones made in China?

What are Germany and China doing about climate change?   According to the Wall Street Journal:

Germany's hit the wall at 33% renewables so they're still burning coal while building a big natural gas pipeline to Russia ... allegedly natural gas burning to generate electricity has a 60% CO2 [reduction]advantage over coal (and it's cheaper ... for now).

Red China, by far the world's worst CO2 villian,  is building 200+ new nuclear power plants ... by the time they get that done we may all be boiled anyway.

Gilligan
Data Scientist
Linebacker Strike Group, Pocket Money Strike Group,  North SAR
Cook/Deckhand MV Mugwump (yes, there really was a motor vessel Mugwump)


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Apparently many in Arizona believe that a solar panel is a religious totem and if you put one on top of your house that there will be free unlimited electricity,  our air will be pure and the planet will be saved.   Elvia Diaz of the Arizona Republic is the high priestess and soothsayer-in-chief of this cult.

Miracles do happen, but the most likely outcome of Arizona's California inspired Proposition 127, if passed, will be anything put miraculous.   A California-like energy plan will give Arizona California-like energy rates.  According to the US Energy Information Agency, that's 20 cents a kilowatt hour,  8 cents more than what Arizonans currently pay.

Arizona's air won't get cleaner or healthier.   According to the EPA,  by far most of Arizona's pollution is produced by cars, trucks, airplanes, agriculture, mining and construction [more so for Maricopa County].   Arizona's cleanest air is where the coal-fired power plants are.   In any event,  Arizona's coal-fired power plants are going away with or without 127,  since they're being replaced by plants that use clean-burning natural gas.

127 definitely won't save the planet.  Arizona produces only a tiny, tiny amount of the world's global-warming CO2 gas emissions, and even then most of that is produced by Arizona's cars, trucks, and mining.

Miracles can happen.  So far, California and Germany are still waiting for theirs.  Their renewables generate too much power when it's not needed and too little when it is.   California's renewables generate so much unneeded electricity that to prevent their electrical grid from melting they pay Arizona to take the electricity California can't use.  Who will Arizona pay to take its?

No one can predict the future with certainty ... and that's a very good reason not to hope for miracles and not to put a cargo-cult renewables straitjacket in the Arizona constitution.