Arizona Republic's Fake Election News

The Republic claimed 270,000 voters were affected by Recorder Fontes's election day problems on Augusts 28, 2018.   Preposterous.   Only 101,000 people voted on election day and even then most of these don't live in the precincts affected by the outages that lasted only a few hours.

In the precincts affected by the outage

11,420 ballots were cast on election day

65,693 ballots were cast prior to election day by mail or in person 

We know ahead of time that only about 30% of the registered voters in Maricopa county will vote in a primary.

We know ahead of time that most voters will vote before election day.   In the recent election, the number for the affected precincts 85% of the total vote.

Using the election day turnout rate for the unaffected precincts,  we get a proforma election day vote for the affected precincts of 12140.

The hard ceiling for the number possibly affected by the outage is 13,000.   But we know 11,420 were able to vote and that the affected precincts were closed for only part of the morning.

Using an estimated hourly arrival/voting rate at the affected precincts and the timeline recently provided by the Recorder,  the number of voters affected works out to only about 2,500 with the number that might have been entirely deterred at about 600-700,  using the difference between the proforma vote and the actual vote.